Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 6 brokers · 287 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-21.
The street models Hamilton Lane as a private-markets compounder: fee-earning AUM rising to roughly $97bn by FY-2028, with nearly all the growth in higher-fee specialized funds while customized separate accounts stay flat. Management and advisory fees and the fee-earning base are tightly modeled; the genuine disagreement sits in out-year incentive and performance fees, where carry-realization timing splits the six brokers. Fee-related earnings per unit compound to about $7.8 by FY-2028. This tab reads the segment detail behind that path; the CapIQ tab carries headline revenue and EPS consensus.
Specialized funds are the modeled growth engine; separate accounts sit flat
Specialized funds carry a ~1.05% fee versus ~0.34% on separate accounts, so the mix shift compounds revenue faster than AUM. Specialized-fund FEAUM overtakes separate accounts in FY-2027 and grows a further +16% in FY-2028.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEAUM | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total fee earning assets under management | $72.87bn | $80.74bn | $88.87bn | $98.27bn | +10.1% | 6 |
| Total FEAUM - specialized funds | $32.26bn | $39.32bn | $46.50bn | $54.06bn | +18.3% | 6 |
| Total FEAUM - customized separate accounts | $40.61bn | $41.42bn | $42.38bn | $44.21bn | +2.3% | 6 |
| Fee rate | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Specialized funds fee rate(%) | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | +0.0pt | 6 |
| Separate accounts fee rate(%) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.0pt | 6 |
The mix shift lands in fee revenue and fee-related earnings
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fee revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Management and advisory fees | $515.60m | $583.67m | $671.87m | $769.88m | +15.1% | 6 |
| Specialized funds | $314.20m | $372.00m | $455.09m | $542.47m | +22.3% | 6 |
| Customized separate accounts | $136.87m | $142.43m | $143.93m | $148.31m | +1.1% | 6 |
| Earnings | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fee-related earnings | $220.37m | $339.46m | $386.62m | $439.05m | +13.9% | 6 |
| Fee-related earnings per unit($) | $4.06 | $6.23 | $7.10 | $8.03 | +14.0% | 6 |
| Distributable earnings per share($) | $4.97 | $6.07 | $6.33 | $7.25 | +4.2% | 6 |
Brokers agree on the fee base; they split on out-year performance fees
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incentive fees | FY-2028E | $268.10m | $242.18m–$294.31m | $218.00m–$305.18m | 6 |
| Fee related performance revenue (FRPR) | FY-2028E | $121.96m | $112.52m–$135.91m | $97.13m–$146.75m | 6 |
| Realized incentive revenue | FY-2028E | $190.98m | $181.93m–$206.89m | $174.13m–$219.32m | 6 |
Core lines are fresh and well-covered; some detail rests on few brokers
Core FEAUM, fee and earnings lines carry five to six brokers and were refreshed on 2026-07-21. Total AUM and assets-under-advisement rest on only three to four brokers, and after-tax fee-related earnings is a single-broker view; treat the FY-2028 outer year, where dispersion widens, as a forecast rather than settled consensus.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.